Hunga Tonga temperature impact waning
In 2022, the massive Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption in the Western Pacific caused a rise in stratospheric water vapor, leading to a spike in global temperatures.
Good Science is based on the Scientific Method.
In this case, the Hypothesis is that the current spike in global temperatures as measured by UAH has been impacted by the Hunga Tonga submarine volcano explosion on 15th January 2022.
In 2022 and 2023 the media has been having a field day saying these are the hottest years “evah”!
In 2022 there was a rise in the water vapor in the Stratosphere, after the massive explosion in the Western Pacific. This included 146 million metric tonnes of water blasted some 60 km into the air. This water froze into ice crystals. Usually, the Stratosphere has a low water vapor content, but the Hunga Tonga eruption added some extra 10%.
Here are three graphics to better understand what has happened over the last 22 months. The first one is an overview of the initial eruption and the fast action of NOAA to get a team of researchers out into the Indian Ocean on the Island of Reunion in a matter of a week after the explosion. Start at the lower right-hand side of the graphic and follow the arrows up and to the left to see where the island of Reunion and the data collection site is. The inset in the graphic shows a vertical cross-section profile of the Stratosphere up to 31 km high. This graph, when integrated, is where the accurate estimate of the 146 million tonnes of water vapor comes from.
And what is the longer-term effect of this once-in-a-lifetime event?
The above data record is from the NASA Aura satellite. This documents the water vapor in the Stratosphere and a very clear increase in 2022 can be seen in the dark patch. It took the best part of a year to spread around the globe, first in the Southern Hemisphere and then to the north. Looking at the end of the data series – one can see that in the middle of 2024, the dark patch is beginning to lighten up, showing a reduction in the water vapor content.
So, what is the impact on global temperatures? We consider the UAH satellite temperature record to be the best available data with one reading per month. The complete record through December 2024 is available at the foot of this article.
Here is a chart of those data points for the last few years, starting in 2015.
The blue squares are the January readings and usually fall between the red readings taken in July. In the above chart, there are annotations which further explain the important point of the hypothesis that Hunga Tonga was the driver of the latest temperature spike. The baseline along the x-axis is the Pre-industrial temperature from circa 1850. The optimistic temperature IPCC goal of a 1.5°C rise is shown in 2030. Also shown is the start of Solar Cycle 25 and the Grand Solar Minimum in 2020. A downturn in the temperature record can be seen starting in 2020. Then the July 2022 reading is an outlier – which we assert was due to the extra Water Vapor (WV) in the Stratosphere. From July 2023 onwards there are 18 red dots for the month's readings which are above the 1.5°C IPCC guideline. Did you see the one for April 2024, which is literally off the chart and buried in the 2 of 2024 title?
These 18 UAH readings form a very clear spike, which is indeed one of the highest temperature spikes over the last 100 years. The dashed line pointing down to the Sun is the prediction from the research of Valentina Zharkova. Is this where we are heading?
So, we agree that 2024 has been a very hot year, but not from the slow rise of CO2. The attribution of the heat spike to the Hunga Tonga volcano is based on several different empirical data sources and meets the standard of the Scientific Method.
Comments are welcome!
Douglas Lightfoot and Gerald Ratzer
9th January 2025
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Very good article. Thank you!
A most appreciated post, with extremely valuable data.
May I add a couple of anecdotal observations?
For geopolitical reasons, this goes unreported but every rocket and missile launch destroys a few hundred square kilometres of ozone layer (according to alarmed scientists). This is caused by chlorine gas and heavy metals. It is my understanding that this will have impacts on temperature. This is not my field, but the US has 15 military installations in the north of Australia, one of these illegal: a purported civilian aerospace facility which is in fact the cover story for a RTX/LockheedMartin missile launching platform.
This is not speculation. While researching for the local political representative, I intercepted a discussion between the two weapons manufacturers and the Australian Department of Defence discussing the project in unambiguous terms.
This project threatened the lives of 4000 locals due to the cloud of chlorine gas that would be emitted through vaporisation of stored solid fuel when a Chinese missile eventually eliminates it... an event for which we nervously await, thanks to constant and escalating US provocations.
Happily, a seven-year campaign conducted world-wide, has forced the platform's relocation to Weipa in Queensland. Good for us, bad for them.
My second observation is that we have had the wettest wet season in Darwin in fifty years. This may not be official, but NT met stations are located in the stupidest sites imaginable, never measuring rainfall or temperatures where people live, but simply satisfying interdepartmental criteria.
Even cyclones cannot be measured accurately. Rather than admit met sites are ludicrously positioned, being quickly destroyed in bad cyclones, it considers "scientific" to accept the resultant data as accurate. Anecdotally, yet again, I compared blasting gun air speed to sand-blasted cars of Cyclone Tracy, thus estimating wind speed doubt that of the official estimate. Likewise comparing the impact on large trees, thousands of which were reduced to mere trunks. Both methods calculate at 380KPH, which accords with my impression as I observed outside and unsheltered for five hours during that cyclone. Towards the end, I flew my wife like a kite, as I dragged her to the shelter of a school when the wind direction changed.
My summation is that we are currently being exposed to the most unscientific science in a century.
I hope this draws attention to currently unaddressed phenomena.